Italy's FER-X Auction Intelligence

Industry analysis published by PV Tech highlights that while FER X's 20-year CfD structure provides strong investor confidence, Italy's 2030 renewable targets remain at risk. Italy added 7.2 GW of renewable capacity in 2025 but needs ~10 GW annually to reach 130 GW by 2030. Experts point to two systemic barriers: a fragmented permitting system where national and regional rules frequently conflict, and grid connection timelines that have stretched from ~100 days to up to two years. The analysis also flags that many pipeline projects — though holding grid connections or approved designs — may not be economically viable under current market conditions, raising questions about whether awarded capacity will translate into actual delivery.

Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin has signed the final FER X ministerial decree, unlocking up to 37.15 GW of new renewable capacity through 2030. The €23 billion programme — cleared by the European Commission under the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework — will allocate 27.15 GW via competitive CfD auctions (16.5 GW wind, 10 GW solar, 630 MW hydro) and 10 GW directly to sub-1 MW projects. GSE must publish operational rules within 60 days of the decree entering force, with Round 3 auctions expected to open in autumn 2026.

Italian energy agency GSE has confirmed that upcoming FER X auctions in 2026 and 2027 will allocate 10 GW of solar PV and 16 GW of onshore wind capacity. GSE CEO Vinicio Mosè Vigilante stated the goal is to hold one auction before the end of 2026 and two more in 2027, with EU approval negotiations in their final stages. The announcement follows strong results from Round 1, which awarded 7,700 MW of solar across 474 projects at an average price of €0.05682/kWh — 37.3% below the government ceiling — and 940 MW of wind at €0.07285/kWh. Round 2 allocated a further 1.1 GW of solar under new NZIA resilience criteria that exclude Chinese-manufactured modules and inverters.

Developers active in Italy's onshore renewables market confirmed at the KEY Energy Transition Expo in Rimini that hopes for a first-half 2026 FER X auction have faded, with late 2026 now the most likely window. Minister Pichetto Fratin acknowledged the delay, noting that EU approval negotiations are "a lengthy procedure" and that his team is working closely with the European Commission. The delay follows the expiry of the Transitional FER X scheme — a reduced-scope stopgap that awarded 939 MW of onshore wind in a single round in 2025. The Ministry is also progressing work on the FER-Z framework, which will incentivise aggregated renewable portfolios, with its first auction expected in 2027.