Day-Ahead Market Prices
Prezzo Unico Nazionale (PUN) monthly averages. The CfD reference price is benchmarked against PUN — when PUN exceeds your strike price, you pay back the difference.
Note: Monthly averages are indicative estimates based on public GME data. Verify against official GME publications for bid modelling.
With PUN averaging ~€116/MWh in 2025 (vs ~€108/MWh in 2024), solar strike prices of €56–63/MWh would trigger significant CfD payback obligations. Bidders should model downside scenarios where PUN returns to €87–95/MWh (as seen in Apr–May 2025) before committing to strike prices near the operating cap. The CfD mechanism protects against low PUN but creates payback liability when PUN is high.
- GME (Gestore dei Mercati Energetici) — Prezzi di mercato: PUN monorario mensile 2024–2025.
- GME — Report Mensile sul Sistema Elettrico (pubblicazioni mensili 2024–2025).
- GSE — Meccanismo CfD: Riferimento al PUN come prezzo di mercato. Regole applicative FER X Transitorio.
Technology Breakdown
Total incentivised capacity caps under the Transitional FER-X Decree vs. actual awarded capacity after Rounds 1 and 2.
Solar PV accounts for 68% of total cap. Round 1 was 2.2× oversubscribed — expect continued strong competition in future rounds.
Only 940 MW of 4 GW wind cap was awarded in Round 1 (24%). ~3 GW wind capacity remains available — less competitive sector.
Southern Italy and Sicily received disproportionate PV awards relative to local demand. Grid curtailment risk should be factored into project economics.
Round 1 vs Round 2 Comparison
Side-by-side comparison of both completed FER-X rounds. Use this data to benchmark your Round 3 bid strategy.
| Metric | Round 1 (Jul–Sep 2025) | Round 2 NZIA (Late 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Auction Period | Jul 14 – Sep 12, 2025 | Late 2025 |
| Technology Scope | Solar PV + Onshore Wind | Solar PV only (NZIA) |
| Total Capacity Cap | 10.5 GW (8 GW PV + 2.5 GW Wind) | 1.6 GW (PV only) |
| Applications Received | ~1,500 expressions of interest | 156 applications (1.85 GW) |
| Awarded Capacity | 8.63 GW (7.69 GW PV + 0.94 GW Wind) | 1.10 GW (PV) |
| Fill Rate | 82% of available capacity | 69% of cap |
| Solar Avg Strike Price | €56.83/MWh | €66.37/MWh |
| Solar Max Strike Price | €62.68/MWh | €73.00/MWh (cap) |
| Wind Avg Strike Price | €72.85/MWh | N/A (no wind) |
| Winning Projects | 503 total (474 PV + 29 Wind) | ~156 PV projects |
| Component Restriction | None | No Chinese cells/modules/inverters (>1 MW) |
| Price vs. Cap | Avg 8.8% below cap | Avg 27.7% below cap |
| Commissioning Deadline | 36 months from results | 36 months from results |
Round 2 NZIA prices were 17% higher on average than Round 1 — non-Chinese supply chain commands a premium.
Wind capacity is significantly underbid — 3.06 GW remains available, representing a less competitive entry point.
Solar oversubscription (2.2×) in Round 1 suggests Round 3 solar will be highly competitive; bid aggressively below the operating cap.
The 27.7% discount to cap in Round 2 signals bidders are pricing competitively — model at least 20–25% below cap for Round 3.
- GSE — FER X Transitorio: Esiti Asta Round 1 (Risultati ufficiali, settembre 2025).
- GSE — FER X NZIA: Esiti Asta Round 2 (Risultati ufficiali, 2025).
- Cap prices reflect the prezzo di esercizio superiore per Allegato 1, DM FER X Transitorio. Max strike prices in the comparison table represent the highest awarded bid, not the pre-auction cap.